| Abstract | Earths climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C, with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy-makers is divided about how to minimise the change, how to mitigate its effects, how to maintain the natural resources on which societies depend and how to adapt human societies to the changes. Natural systems are still seen, through a long tradition of conservation management that is largely species-based, as amenable to adaptive management, and biodiversity, mostly perceived as the richness of plant and vertebrate communities, often forms a focus for planning. We argue that prediction of particular species changes will be possible only in a minority of cases but that prediction of trends in general structure and operation of four generic freshwater ecosystems (erosive rivers, depositional floodplain rivers, shallow lakes and deep lakes) in three broad zones of Europe (Mediterranean, Central and Arctic-Boreal) is practicable. Maintenance and rehabilitation of ecological structures and operations will inevitably and incidentally embrace restoration of appropriate levels of species biodiversity. Using expert judgement, based on an extensive literature, we have outlined, primarily for lay policy makers, the pristine features of these systems, their states under current human impacts, how these states are likely to alter with a warming of 2 °C to 4 °C and what might be done to mitigate this. We have avoided technical terms in the interests of communication, and although we have included full referencing as in academic papers, we have eliminated degrees of detail that could confuse broad policy-making. |
| Text | 71933 2009 Streams rivers floodplains lakes temperature Climate change and the future of freshwater biodiversity in Europe a primer for policy makers Autori Vari 1 School of Biological Sciences, University of Liverpool, UK 2 University of Duisberg Essen, Dept of Applied Zoology/Hydrobiology, Germany 3 Dept of Wetland Ecology, Estacion Biologica de Doñana CSIC, Americo Vespucio, Sevilla, Spain 4 UMR CNRS, EcoBio, University of Rennes, France 5 Area de Ecologia, Facultad de Biologia, Universidad de Leon, Spain 6 Middle East Technical University, Biological Department, Ankara, Turkey 7 Environmental Change Research Centre, Dept of Geography, University College, London, UK; 8 Institute of Aquatic Ecology, Faculty of Sciences, University of Girona, Spain 9 Dept of Freshwater Ecology, National Environment Research Institute, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmar 1 0 NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK 11 Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology and Evolution, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium 12 Freshwater Biological Association, Ferry Landing, Far Sawrey, Ambleside, Cumbria, UK 13 Dept of Aquatic Foodwebs, Centre for Limnology, Nieuwersluis, The Netherlands 14 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, NERC, Lancaster, UK 15 Catchment Management Group, Macaulay Land Research Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK 16 Laboratoire Evolution et Diversite Biologique, Castanet Tolosan, France 17 Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment, Wilhelmshaven, Germany 18 Norwegian Institute for Water Research, and Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Norway 19 School of Natural Sciences, Zoology, Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland 20 Dept of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden 21 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, NERC, Dorset, UK 22 Facultad de Ciencias Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay 23 Institute of Freshwater Fisheries, Reykjavik, Iceland 24 Catchment Research Group, Cardiff School of Biosciences, Cardiff University, UK 25 Dept of Biology, University of Patras, Greece 26 Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands 27 Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Oslo, Norway 28 Institute of Botany, Aristotle University of Thessalonika, Greece 29 Alterra, Dept of Ecology and Environment, Wageningen, The Netherlands 30 Institute for Sustainable Water, Integrated Management and Ecosystem Research SWIMMER , Nicholson Building, University of Liverpool, UK 31 ICBM, Univ. of Oldenburg, Wilhelmshaven, Germany. Earths climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C, with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy makers is divided about how to minimise the change, how to mitigate its effects, how to maintain the natural resources on which societies depend and how to adapt human societies to the changes. Natural systems are still seen, through a long tradition of conservation management that is largely species based, as amenable to adaptive management, and biodiversity, mostly perceived as the richness of plant and vertebrate communities, often forms a focus for planning. We argue that prediction of particular species changes will be possible only in a minority of cases but that prediction of trends in general structure and operation of four generic freshwater ecosystems erosive rivers, depositional floodplain rivers, shallow lakes and deep lakes in three broad zones of Europe Mediterranean, Central and Arctic Boreal is practicable. Maintenance and rehabilitation of ecological structures and operations will inevitably and incidentally embrace restoration of appropriate levels of species biodiversity. Using expert judgement, based on an extensive literature, we have outlined, primarily for lay policy makers, the pristine features of these systems, their states under current human impacts, how these states are likely to alter with a warming of 2 °C to 4 °C and what might be done to mitigate this. We have avoided technical terms in the interests of communication, and although we have included full referencing as in academic papers, we have eliminated degrees of detail that could confuse broad policy making. 2 Published version key words Streams; rivers; floodplains; lakes; temperature; hydrology; diversity; future projection Articolo in rivista Freshwater Biological Association 1755 084X Freshwater reviews Freshwater reviews Freshw. rev. Freshwater reviews. marinamarcella.manca MANCA MARINA MARCELLA TA.P04.016.004 Ecologia teorica e applicata degli ecosistemi acquatici |
