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TitleConsidering biotic interactions exacerbates the predicted impacts of climate change on coral-dwelling species
AbstractAim: Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions of many species and researchers are increasingly relying on species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast species' redistributions under climate change. Such modelling studies, however, often ignore biotic interactions that shape species' geographic ranges. This is especially problematic for coral reefs, which host a high diversity of species and interactions. We tested how biotic interactions affect the distribution patterns of obligate coral-dwelling Trapezia crabs. Location: Global coastal ocean. Time Period: 2000-2014, 2040-2050, 2090-2100. Major Taxa Studied: Corals and coral-dwelling Trapezia crabs. Methods: We determined the symbiotic relationships between 22 crab species in the genus Trapezia and corals via field survey and extensive literature review. We first developed SDMs for coral and crab species using exclusively abiotic variables (abiotic-only models for corals and crabs). Then we constructed a second set of models where we accounted for coral distributions into crab predictions by combining model predictions for the two taxa a posteriori (abiotic-plus-biotic models for crabs only). Results: We obtained 30 commonly accepted coral-crab symbiotic relationships from nine Trapezia crab and six stony coral species. The abiotic-only model predictions showed that six corals may lose approximately one-sixth of suitable ranges under RCP 8.5 in 2040-2050. The two types of models for crabs yielded largely different habitat suitability predictions and accounting for biotic interactions into SDM predictions exacerbates the predicted impacts of climate change on coral-dwelling crabs. Main Conclusions: Our results show large discrepancies in crab spatial distribution patterns with and without accounting for symbiotic interactions. Our findings highlight the important role of modeller's decision on accounting for biotic interactions when predicting the geographical ranges of coral-dwelling species, with important implications for designing future conservation and management strategies for marine species.
SourceJournal of biogeography (Print)
Keywordsbiotic interactionclimate changecoral reefcoral-dwelling crabmarine protectionspecies distribution modelspecies redistributionTrapezia
JournalJournal of biogeography (Print)
EditorBlackwell Scientific,, Oxford, Regno Unito
Year2023
TypeArticolo in rivista
DOI10.1111/jbi.14789
AuthorsZhang, Zhixin; Ma, Shaobo; Bede-Fazekas, Ákos; Mammola, Stefano; Qu, Meng; Zhou, Jinxin; Feng, Ellias Yuming; Qin, Geng; Lin, Qiang
Text491267 2023 10.1111/jbi.14789 Scopus 2 s2.0 85180846097 biotic interaction climate change coral reef coral dwelling crab marine protection species distribution model species redistribution Trapezia Considering biotic interactions exacerbates the predicted impacts of climate change on coral dwelling species Zhang, Zhixin; Ma, Shaobo; Bede Fazekas, Ákos; Mammola, Stefano; Qu, Meng; Zhou, Jinxin; Feng, Ellias Yuming; Qin, Geng; Lin, Qiang Istituto di Ricerca sulle Acque, Italy; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; The University of Tokyo; Eotvos Lorand Tudomanyegyetem; South China Sea Institute of Oceanology; Ocean University of China; Luonnontieteellinen Keskusmuseo; Institute of Ecology and Botany Aim Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions of many species and researchers are increasingly relying on species distribution models SDMs to forecast species redistributions under climate change. Such modelling studies, however, often ignore biotic interactions that shape species geographic ranges. This is especially problematic for coral reefs, which host a high diversity of species and interactions. We tested how biotic interactions affect the distribution patterns of obligate coral dwelling Trapezia crabs. Location Global coastal ocean. Time Period 2000 2014, 2040 2050, 2090 2100. Major Taxa Studied Corals and coral dwelling Trapezia crabs. Methods We determined the symbiotic relationships between 22 crab species in the genus Trapezia and corals via field survey and extensive literature review. We first developed SDMs for coral and crab species using exclusively abiotic variables abiotic only models for corals and crabs . Then we constructed a second set of models where we accounted for coral distributions into crab predictions by combining model predictions for the two taxa a posteriori abiotic plus biotic models for crabs only . Results We obtained 30 commonly accepted coral crab symbiotic relationships from nine Trapezia crab and six stony coral species. The abiotic only model predictions showed that six corals may lose approximately one sixth of suitable ranges under RCP 8.5 in 2040 2050. The two types of models for crabs yielded largely different habitat suitability predictions and accounting for biotic interactions into SDM predictions exacerbates the predicted impacts of climate change on coral dwelling crabs. Main Conclusions Our results show large discrepancies in crab spatial distribution patterns with and without accounting for symbiotic interactions. Our findings highlight the important role of modeller s decision on accounting for biotic interactions when predicting the geographical ranges of coral dwelling species, with important implications for designing future conservation and management strategies for marine species. Published version http //www.scopus.com/record/display.url eid=2 s2.0 85180846097 origin=inward Published version 2024_ZHANGET AL JoB.pdf Articolo in rivista Blackwell Scientific, 0305 0270 Journal of biogeography Print Journal of biogeography Print J. biogeogr. Print Journal of biogeography. Print stefano.mammola MAMMOLA STEFANO