| Title | Climate and landscape changes enhance the global spread of a bloom-forming dinoflagellate related to fish kills and water quality deterioration |
| Abstract | Global inland water biodiversity is under mounting stress facing future scenarios of climate change, biological invasions, pollution, diversion, damming of rivers, and increase of water abstractions. Apart from having isolated effects, all these stressors threats act synergistically and thus pose additional emerging threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Native to Northern Europe, the nuisance and potential toxic dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides (Levander) Langhans 1925 is a silent invader that blooms in freshwater systems; it has one of the most rapid spread rates globally. We propose a framework to determine the worldwide most vulnerable areas for the invasion by C. furcoides shortly (2041-2060) by combining future scenarios of climate change (a proxy for invasiveness) derived from ecological niche models with future dam construction data (a proxy for invasibility). The nine models applied in four future scenarios of greenhouse gas emission from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 showed a general increase in areas suitable for the invasion success of C. furcoides. High susceptibility overlapped with areas densely occupied by large and medium-size dams and future dam construction projects. Considering that C. furcoides can reproduce from a single cell, produces resistant stages, and has several strategies to cope with local environmental constraints, early detection protocols, and mitigation actions are urgently needed to avoid biodiversity declines related to this invader. |
| Source | Ecological indicators 133 |
| Keywords | Algal bloomsClimate changeDam constructionsEcological Niche ModellingInvasibilityInvasiveness |
| Journal | Ecological indicators |
| Editor | Elsevier Science Ireland., Shannon, Paesi Bassi |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108408 |
| Authors | Lacerda Macêdo, Rafael; Clara Sampaio Franco, Ana; Russo, Philip; Collart, Tim; Mammola, Stefano; Jeppesen, Erik; Wyss Castelo Branco, Christina; Neves dos Santos, Luciano; Rocha, Odete |
| Text | 461369 2021 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108408 Scopus 2 s2.0 85120931510 Algal blooms Climate change Dam constructions Ecological Niche Modelling Invasibility Invasiveness Climate and landscape changes enhance the global spread of a bloom forming dinoflagellate related to fish kills and water quality deterioration Lacerda Macedo, Rafael; Clara Sampaio Franco, Ana; Russo, Philip; Collart, Tim; Mammola, Stefano; Jeppesen, Erik; Wyss Castelo Branco, Christina; Neves dos Santos, Luciano; Rocha, Odete Institute of Marine Sciences METU; Universiteit Gent; Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; Aarhus Universitet; Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro; Luonnontieteellinen Keskusmuseo; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche; Universidade Federal de São Carlos; Middle East Technical University METU ; Sino Danish Centre for Education and Research Global inland water biodiversity is under mounting stress facing future scenarios of climate change, biological invasions, pollution, diversion, damming of rivers, and increase of water abstractions. Apart from having isolated effects, all these stressors threats act synergistically and thus pose additional emerging threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Native to Northern Europe, the nuisance and potential toxic dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides Levander Langhans 1925 is a silent invader that blooms in freshwater systems; it has one of the most rapid spread rates globally. We propose a framework to determine the worldwide most vulnerable areas for the invasion by C. furcoides shortly 2041 2060 by combining future scenarios of climate change a proxy for invasiveness derived from ecological niche models with future dam construction data a proxy for invasibility . The nine models applied in four future scenarios of greenhouse gas emission from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 showed a general increase in areas suitable for the invasion success of C. furcoides. High susceptibility overlapped with areas densely occupied by large and medium size dams and future dam construction projects. Considering that C. furcoides can reproduce from a single cell, produces resistant stages, and has several strategies to cope with local environmental constraints, early detection protocols, and mitigation actions are urgently needed to avoid biodiversity declines related to this invader. 133 Published version http //www.scopus.com/record/display.url eid=2 s2.0 85120931510 origin=inward Published version 2021_MACEDO ET AL Ecol Ind.pdf Articolo in rivista Elsevier Science Ireland. 1470 160X Ecological indicators Ecological indicators Ecological indicators. stefano.mammola MAMMOLA STEFANO |
