| Title | Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change |
| Abstract | Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly in recent decades. To improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact their ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which can estimate a species' potential distribution under present and future climatic scenarios given species' presence data and climatic predictor variables. However, these models are typically constructed with species-level data, and thus ignore intraspecific genetic variability, which can give rise to populations with adaptations to heterogeneous climatic conditions. Here, we explore the link between intraspecific adaptation and niche differentiation in Thalassia hemprichii, a seagrass broadly distributed in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean and a crucial provider of habitat for numerous marine species. By retrieving and re-analysing microsatellite data from previous studies, we delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within the nominal species and found an intermediate level of differentiation in their multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. We then compared projections of the species' habitat suitability under climate change scenarios using species-level and lineage-level SDMs. In the Central Tropical Indo-Pacific region, models for both levels predicted considerable range contraction in the future, but the lineage-level models predicted more severe habitat loss. Importantly, the two modelling approaches predicted opposite patterns of habitat change in the Western Tropical Indo-Pacific region. Our results highlight the necessity of conserving distinct populations and genetic pools to avoid regional extinction due to climate change and have important implications for guiding future management of seagrasses. |
| Source | Molecular ecology (Print) |
| Keywords | climate change scenariogenetic lineageniche conservationrange shiftspecies distribution modelThalassia hemprichii |
| Journal | Molecular ecology (Print) |
| Editor | Blackwell Scientific Publications,, Oxford, Regno Unito |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1111/mec.15996 |
| Authors | Hu, Zi Min; Zhang, Quan Sheng; Zhang, Jie; Kass, Jamie M.; Mammola, Stefano; Fresia, Pablo; Draisma, Stefano G.A.; Assis, Jorge; Jueterbock, Alexander; Yokota, Masashi; Zhang, Zhixin |
| Text | 454857 2021 10.1111/mec.15996 Scopus 2 s2.0 85107599903 climate change scenario genetic lineage niche conservation range shift species distribution model Thalassia hemprichii Intraspecific genetic variation matters when predicting seagrass distribution under climate change Hu, Zi Min; Zhang, Quan Sheng; Zhang, Jie; Kass, Jamie M.; Mammola, Stefano; Fresia, Pablo; Draisma, Stefano G.A.; Assis, Jorge; Jueterbock, Alexander; Yokota, Masashi; Zhang, Zhixin Institut Pasteur de Montevideo; Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University; Istituto di Ricerca sulle Acque, Italy; Yantai University; Finnish Museum of Natural History; Nord universitet; National University Corporation Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology; Institute of Oceanology Chinese Academy of Sciences; Hokkaido University; Prince of Songkla University; Universidade do Algarve Seagrasses play a vital role in structuring coastal marine ecosystems, but their distributional range and genetic diversity have declined rapidly in recent decades. To improve conservation of seagrass species, it is important to predict how climate change may impact their ranges. Such predictions are typically made with correlative species distribution models SDMs , which can estimate a species potential distribution under present and future climatic scenarios given species presence data and climatic predictor variables. However, these models are typically constructed with species level data, and thus ignore intraspecific genetic variability, which can give rise to populations with adaptations to heterogeneous climatic conditions. Here, we explore the link between intraspecific adaptation and niche differentiation in Thalassia hemprichii, a seagrass broadly distributed in the tropical Indo Pacific Ocean and a crucial provider of habitat for numerous marine species. By retrieving and re analysing microsatellite data from previous studies, we delimited two distinct phylogeographical lineages within the nominal species and found an intermediate level of differentiation in their multidimensional environmental niches, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. We then compared projections of the species habitat suitability under climate change scenarios using species level and lineage level SDMs. In the Central Tropical Indo Pacific region, models for both levels predicted considerable range contraction in the future, but the lineage level models predicted more severe habitat loss. Importantly, the two modelling approaches predicted opposite patterns of habitat change in the Western Tropical Indo Pacific region. Our results highlight the necessity of conserving distinct populations and genetic pools to avoid regional extinction due to climate change and have important implications for guiding future management of seagrasses. Published version http //www.scopus.com/record/display.url eid=2 s2.0 85107599903 origin=inward Articolo in rivista Blackwell Scientific Publications, 0962 1083 Molecular ecology Print Molecular ecology Print Mol. ecol. Print Molecular ecology. Print stefano.mammola MAMMOLA STEFANO |
