| Title | Lineage-level distribution models lead to more realistic climate change predictions for a threatened crayfish |
| Abstract | Aim As climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity in the next decades, it is critical to assess its impact on species habitat suitability to inform biodiversity conservation. Species distribution models (SDMs) are a widely used tool to assess climate change impacts on species' geographical distributions. As the name of these models suggests, the species level is the most commonly used taxonomic unit in SDMs. However, recently it has been demonstrated that SDMs considering taxonomic resolution below (or above) the species level can make more reliable predictions of biodiversity change when different populations exhibit local adaptation. Here, we tested this idea using the Japanese crayfish (Cambaroides japonicus), a threatened species encompassing two geographically structured and phylogenetically distinct genetic lineages.
Location: Northern Japan.
Methods: We first estimated niche differentiation between the two lineages of C. japonicus using n-dimensional hypervolumes and then made climate change predic- tions of habitat suitability using SDMs constructed at two phylogenetic levels: species and intraspecific lineage.
Results: Our results showed only intermediate niche overlap, demonstrating measur- able niche differences between the two lineages. The species-level SDM made fu- ture predictions that predicted much broader and severe impacts of climate change. However, the lineage-level SDMs led to reduced climate change impacts overall and also suggested that the eastern lineage may be more resilient to climate change than the western one.
Main conclusions: The two lineages of C. japonicus occupy different niche spaces. Compared with lineage-level models, species-level models can overestimate climate change impacts. These results not only have important implications for designing fu- ture conservation strategies for this threatened species, but also highlight the need for incorporating genetic information into SDMs to obtain realistic predictions of bio- diversity change. |
| Source | Diversity and distributions (Print) |
| Keywords | Cambaroides japonicusevolutionarily significant unitgenetic lineagehabitat suitabilityspecies distribution modeltaxonomic unit |
| Journal | Diversity and distributions (Print) |
| Editor | Blackwell Science., Oxford, Regno Unito |
| Year | 2021 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1111/ddi.13225 |
| Authors | Zhang, Zhixin; Kass, Jamie M.; Mammola, Stefano; Koizumi, Itsuro; Li, Xuecao; Tanaka, Kazunori; Ikeda, Kousuke; Suzuki, Toru; Yokota, Masashi; Usio, Nisikawa |
| Text | 446573 2021 10.1111/ddi.13225 ISI Web of Science WOS 000609285500001 Cambaroides japonicus evolutionarily significant unit genetic lineage habitat suitability species distribution model taxonomic unit Lineage level distribution models lead to more realistic climate change predictions for a threatened crayfish Zhang, Zhixin; Kass, Jamie M.; Mammola, Stefano; Koizumi, Itsuro; Li, Xuecao; Tanaka, Kazunori; Ikeda, Kousuke; Suzuki, Toru; Yokota, Masashi; Usio, Nisikawa Tokyo Univ Marine Sci Technol; Okinawa Inst Sci Technol Grad Univ; Natl Res Council Italy CNR IRSA; Univ Helsinki; Hokkaido Univ; China Agr Univ; Hokkaido Univ; Pacific Consultants Co Ltd; Rakuno Gakuen Univ; Kanazawa Univ Aim As climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity in the next decades, it is critical to assess its impact on species habitat suitability to inform biodiversity conservation. Species distribution models SDMs are a widely used tool to assess climate change impacts on species geographical distributions. As the name of these models suggests, the species level is the most commonly used taxonomic unit in SDMs. However, recently it has been demonstrated that SDMs considering taxonomic resolution below or above the species level can make more reliable predictions of biodiversity change when different populations exhibit local adaptation. Here, we tested this idea using the Japanese crayfish Cambaroides japonicus , a threatened species encompassing two geographically structured and phylogenetically distinct genetic lineages. Location Northern Japan. Methods We first estimated niche differentiation between the two lineages of C. japonicus using n dimensional hypervolumes and then made climate change predic tions of habitat suitability using SDMs constructed at two phylogenetic levels species and intraspecific lineage. Results Our results showed only intermediate niche overlap, demonstrating measur able niche differences between the two lineages. The species level SDM made fu ture predictions that predicted much broader and severe impacts of climate change. However, the lineage level SDMs led to reduced climate change impacts overall and also suggested that the eastern lineage may be more resilient to climate change than the western one. Main conclusions The two lineages of C. japonicus occupy different niche spaces. Compared with lineage level models, species level models can overestimate climate change impacts. These results not only have important implications for designing fu ture conservation strategies for this threatened species, but also highlight the need for incorporating genetic information into SDMs to obtain realistic predictions of bio diversity change. Published version Published version 2021_ZHANG ET AL DDI.pdf Articolo in rivista Blackwell Science. 1366 9516 Diversity and distributions Print Diversity and distributions Print Divers. distrib. Print Diversity and distributions Print stefano.mammola MAMMOLA STEFANO |
