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TitleDeeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes
AbstractGlobally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970-2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade-1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m-3 decade-1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade-1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from - 0.68 °C decade-1 to + 0.65 °C decade-1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.
SourceScientific reports (Nature Publishing Group) 10, pp. 20514
Keywordslake surface temperaturedeepwater temperatureclimate changethermal structurethermal stability
JournalScientific reports (Nature Publishing Group)
EditorNature Publishing Group, London, Regno Unito
Year2020
TypeArticolo in rivista
DOI10.1038/s41598-020-76873-x
AuthorsRachel M. Pilla, Craig E. Williamson, Boris V. Adamovich, Rita Adrian, Orlane Anneville, Sudeep Chandra, William Colom-Montero, Shawn P. Devlin, Margaret A. Dix, Martin T. Dokulil, Evelyn E. Gaiser, Scott F. Girdner, K. David Hambright, David P. Hamilton, Karl Havens, Dag O. Hessen, Scott N. Higgins, Timo H. Huttula, Hannu Huuskonen, Peter D. F. Isles, Klaus D. Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Wendel Bill Keller, Lesley B. Knoll, Johanna Korhonen, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Peter R. Leavitt, Fabio Lepori, Martin S. Luger, Stephen C. Maberly, John M. Melack, Stephanie J. Melles, Dörthe C. Müller-Navarra, Don C. Pierson, Helen V. Pislegina, Pierre-Denis Plisnier, David C. Richardson, Alon Rimmer, Michela Rogora, James A. Rusak, Steven Sadro, Nico Salmaso, Jasmine E. Saros, Émilie Saulnier-Talbot, Daniel E. Schindler, Martin Schmid, Svetlana V. Shimaraeva, Eugene A. Silow, Lewis M. Sitoki, Ruben Sommaruga, Dietmar Straile, Kristin E. Strock, Wim Thiery, Maxim A. Timofeyev, Piet Verburg, Rolf D. Vinebrooke, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer & Egor Zadereev
Text437608 2020 10.1038/s41598 020 76873 x lake surface temperature deepwater temperature climate change thermal structure thermal stability Deeper waters are changing less consistently than surface waters in a global analysis of 102 lakes Rachel M. Pilla, Craig E. Williamson, Boris V. Adamovich, Rita Adrian, Orlane Anneville, Sudeep Chandra, William Colom Montero, Shawn P. Devlin, Margaret A. Dix, Martin T. Dokulil, Evelyn E. Gaiser, Scott F. Girdner, K. David Hambright, David P. Hamilton, Karl Havens, Dag O. Hessen, Scott N. Higgins, Timo H. Huttula, Hannu Huuskonen, Peter D. F. Isles, Klaus D. Joehnk, Ian D. Jones, Wendel Bill Keller, Lesley B. Knoll, Johanna Korhonen, Benjamin M. Kraemer, Peter R. Leavitt, Fabio Lepori, Martin S. Luger, Stephen C. Maberly, John M. Melack, Stephanie J. Melles, Dorthe C. Muller Navarra, Don C. Pierson, Helen V. Pislegina, Pierre Denis Plisnier, David C. Richardson, Alon Rimmer, Michela Rogora, James A. Rusak, Steven Sadro, Nico Salmaso, Jasmine E. Saros, Émilie Saulnier Talbot, Daniel E. Schindler, Martin Schmid, Svetlana V. Shimaraeva, Eugene A. Silow, Lewis M. Sitoki, Ruben Sommaruga, Dietmar Straile, Kristin E. Strock, Wim Thiery, Maxim A. Timofeyev, Piet Verburg, Rolf D. Vinebrooke, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer Egor Zadereev Department of Biology, Miami University, Oxford, OH, USA, Faculty of Biology, Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus, Department of Ecosystems Research, Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany, Freie Universitat Berlin, Berlin, Germany, CARRTEL, INRAE, Thonon les Bains, France, Global Water Center, University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA, Department of Ecology and Genetics/Limnology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden, Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Polson, MT, USA, Instituto de Investigacones, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala, Research Department for Limnology Mondsee, University of Innsbruck, Mondsee, Austria, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA, Crater Lake National Park, U.S. National Park Service, Crater Lake, OR, USA, Department of Biology, Plankton Ecology and Limnology Lab and Geographical Ecology Group, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Australia, Florida Sea Grant and UF/IFAS, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, IISD Experimental Lake Area Inc, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, Freshwater Center, Finnish Environment Institute SYKE, Helsinki, Finland, Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland, Department of Aquatic Ecology, Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Dubendorf, Switzerland, Land and Water, CSIRO, Canberra, Australia, Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, UK, Cooperative Freshwater Ecology Unit, Laurentian University, Ramsey Lake Road, Sudbury, ON, Canada, Itasca Biological Station and Laboratories, University of Minnesota, Lake Itasca, MN, USA, Institute of Environmental Change and Society, University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada, Institute for Global Food Security, Queen s University Belfast, Belfast Co., Antrim, UK, Department for Environment, Constructions and Design, University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland, Canobbio, Switzerland, Federal Agency for Water Management AT, Mondsee, Austria, Lake Ecosystems Group, UK Centre for Ecology Hydrology, Lancaster, UK, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA, Department of Chemistry and Biology, Ryerson University, Toronto, ON, Canada, Department of Biology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany, Institute of Biology, Irkutsk State University, Irkutsk, Russia, University of Liege, Liege, Belgium, Department of Biology, SUNY New Paltz, New Paltz, NY, USA, The Kinneret Limnological Laboratory, Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, Migdal, Israel, CNR Water Research Institute, Verbania Pallanza, Italy, Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation, and Parks, Dorset, ON, Canada, Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, USA, Department of Sustainable Agro Ecosystems and Bioresources, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach FEM , San Michele All Adige, Italy, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA, Centre D Études Nordiques, Universite Laval, Quebec, QC, Canada, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, Surface Waters Research and Management, Eawag Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Kastanienbaum, Switzerland, Department of Geosciences and the Environment, The Technical University of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya, Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, Limnological Institute, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany, Department of Environmental Science, Dickinson College, Carlisle, PA, USA, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Hamilton, New Zealand, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada, Institute of Biophysics, Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia Globally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long term 1970 2009 summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of 0.37 °C decade 1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability 0.08 kg m 3 decade 1 . In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average 0.06 °C decade 1 , but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from 0.68 °C decade 1 to 0.65 °C decade 1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences. 10 Published version Articolo in rivista Nature Publishing Group 2045 2322 Scientific reports Nature Publishing Group Scientific reports Nature Publishing Group Scientific reports Nature Publishing Group michela.rogora ROGORA MICHELA TA.P02.014.002 Impatto dei cambiamenti globali sugli ecosistemi acquatici