Scheda di dettaglio – i prodotti della ricerca
| Dato | Valore |
|---|---|
| Title | Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models? A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary |
| Abstract | To obtain realistic forecasts of the impacts of climate change on species habitat suitability, novel approaches based on species distribution models (SDMs) are being developed and scrutinized. We argue here that, when dealing with data from long-term monitoring programmes, incorporating a temporal weight on the occurrence points may result in a more realistic prediction of a species' potential distribution. Using larval fish presence records collected from 1999 to 2013 in the Yangtze Estuary, China, we compared the performance of ensembles of standard SDMs versus SDMs constructed with weighted time-series presence records in predicting the present and future distributions of the larval stages of two dominant fish. The results of the ensemble SDMs showed that weighted presence records can significantly improve SDM performance, as measured through standard validation metrics. The SDM projections suggest that suitable habitat for both species will decrease under future climate scenarios, with one species (Stolephorus commersonnii) predicted to be more susceptible to climate change than the other (Engraulis japonicus). In addition to range contraction, model projections suggest that the future habitats of both species will shift northward--an implication of climate change that should be considered in future management and conservation strategies for the Yangtze Estuary. |
| Source | Science of the total environment 741 |
| Keywords | Climate changeDominant ichthyoplanktonHabitat suitabilitySpecies distribution modellingThe Yangtze EstuaryWeighting distribution data |
| Journal | Science of the total environment |
| Editor | Elsevier, Lausanne ;, Paesi Bassi |
| Year | 2020 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140393 |
| Authors | Zhang, Zhixin; Mammola, Stefano; Zhang, Hui |
| Text | 424973 2020 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140393 Scopus 2 s2.0 85086890829 Climate change Dominant ichthyoplankton Habitat suitability Species distribution modelling The Yangtze Estuary Weighting distribution data Does weighting presence records improve the performance of species distribution models A test using fish larval stages in the Yangtze Estuary Zhang, Zhixin; Mammola, Stefano; Zhang, Hui Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche; Chinese Academy of Sciences; National University Corporation Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology To obtain realistic forecasts of the impacts of climate change on species habitat suitability, novel approaches based on species distribution models SDMs are being developed and scrutinized. We argue here that, when dealing with data from long term monitoring programmes, incorporating a temporal weight on the occurrence points may result in a more realistic prediction of a species potential distribution. Using larval fish presence records collected from 1999 to 2013 in the Yangtze Estuary, China, we compared the performance of ensembles of standard SDMs versus SDMs constructed with weighted time series presence records in predicting the present and future distributions of the larval stages of two dominant fish. The results of the ensemble SDMs showed that weighted presence records can significantly improve SDM performance, as measured through standard validation metrics. The SDM projections suggest that suitable habitat for both species will decrease under future climate scenarios, with one species Stolephorus commersonnii predicted to be more susceptible to climate change than the other Engraulis japonicus . In addition to range contraction, model projections suggest that the future habitats of both species will shift northward an implication of climate change that should be considered in future management and conservation strategies for the Yangtze Estuary. 741 Published version http //www.scopus.com/record/display.url eid=2 s2.0 85086890829 origin=inward Articolo in rivista Elsevier 0048 9697 Science of the total environment Science of the total environment Sci. total environ. stefano.mammola MAMMOLA STEFANO |