| Abstract | Models' abilities to predict nutrient losses at subannual timesteps is highly significant for evaluating policy measures, as it enables trends and the frequency of exceedance of water quality thresholds to be predicted. Subannual predictions also permit assessments of seasonality in nutrient concentrations, which are necessary to determine susceptibility to eutrophic conditions and the impact of management practices on water quality. Predictions of subannual concentrations are pertinent to EC Directives, whereas load estimates are relevant to the 50% target reduction in nutrient loading to the maritime area under OSPAR. This article considers the ability of four models ( ranging from conceptual to fully mechanistic), to predict river flows, concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus on a subannual basis in catchments in Norway, England, and Italy. Results demonstrate that model performance deemed satisfactory on an annual basis may conceal considerable divergence in performance when scrutinised on a weekly or monthly basis. In most cases the four models performed satisfactorily, and mismatches between measurements and model predictions were primarily ascribed to the limitations in input data ( soils in the Norwegian catchment; weather in the Italian catchment). However, results identified limitations in model conceptualisation associated with the damping and lagging effect of a large lake leading to contrasts in model performance upstream and downstream of this feature in the Norwegian catchment. For SWAT applied to the Norwegian catchment, although flow predictions were reasonable, the large number of parameters requiring identification, and the lack of familiarity with this environment, led to poor predictions of river nutrient concentrations. |
| Authors | SILGRAM M., SCHOUMANS O., WALVOORT D., ANTHONY S., ARHEIMER B., BOURAOUI F., GRONONDIJK P., LO PORTO A., PANAGOPOULOS Y. |
| Text | 42318 2009 10.1039/b823250d ISI Web of Science WOS 000264098400008 SUBANNUAL MODELS FOR CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT EVALUATING MODEL PERFORMANCE ON THREE EUROPEAN CATCHMENTS SILGRAM M., SCHOUMANS O., WALVOORT D., ANTHONY S., ARHEIMER B., BOURAOUI F., GRONONDIJK P., LO PORTO A., PANAGOPOULOS Y. ADAS UK Ltd., Wergs Road, Wolverhampton, UK Alterra Green World Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands Joint Research Centre, EC JRC, Ispra, Italy SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden NTUA, Athens, Greece Water Research Institute, National Research Council, IRSA CNR, Bari, Italy SLU, S 75007 Uppsala, Sweden Models abilities to predict nutrient losses at subannual timesteps is highly significant for evaluating policy measures, as it enables trends and the frequency of exceedance of water quality thresholds to be predicted. Subannual predictions also permit assessments of seasonality in nutrient concentrations, which are necessary to determine susceptibility to eutrophic conditions and the impact of management practices on water quality. Predictions of subannual concentrations are pertinent to EC Directives, whereas load estimates are relevant to the 50% target reduction in nutrient loading to the maritime area under OSPAR. This article considers the ability of four models ranging from conceptual to fully mechanistic , to predict river flows, concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus on a subannual basis in catchments in Norway, England, and Italy. Results demonstrate that model performance deemed satisfactory on an annual basis may conceal considerable divergence in performance when scrutinised on a weekly or monthly basis. In most cases the four models performed satisfactorily, and mismatches between measurements and model predictions were primarily ascribed to the limitations in input data soils in the Norwegian catchment; weather in the Italian catchment . However, results identified limitations in model conceptualisation associated with the damping and lagging effect of a large lake leading to contrasts in model performance upstream and downstream of this feature in the Norwegian catchment. For SWAT applied to the Norwegian catchment, although flow predictions were reasonable, the large number of parameters requiring identification, and the lack of familiarity with this environment, led to poor predictions of river nutrient concentrations. 11 3 Articolo pubblicato JEM_subannual_models.pdf Articolo in rivista Royal Society of Chemistry, 1464 0325 Journal of environmental monitoring Print Journal of environmental monitoring Print J. environ. monit. Print Journal of environmental monitoring Print JEM Cambridge. Print Print antonio.loporto LO PORTO ANTONIO TA.P04.005.006 Gestione a scala di bacino delle risorse idriche e sostenibilita dell uso irriguo in agricoltura |
