Scheda di dettaglio – i prodotti della ricerca
| Dato | Valore |
|---|---|
| Title | Stochastic bias-correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications |
| Abstract | The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge. |
| Source | Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) 11 (9), pp. 2497–2509 |
| Keywords | climate changedownscalinghydrological modelling |
| Journal | Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) |
| Editor | Copernicus Publ., Göttingen, Germania |
| Year | 2011 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.5194/nhess-11-2497-2011 |
| Authors | Portoghese, I.; Bruno, E.; Guyennon, N.; Iacobellis, V. |
| Text | 420846 2011 10.5194/nhess 11 2497 2011 ISI Web of Science WOS 000295378300011 climate change downscaling hydrological modelling Stochastic bias correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications Portoghese, I.; Bruno, E.; Guyennon, N.; Iacobellis, V. CNR; Politechnic Bari; CNR The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge. In this study, a comparison between statistical properties of rainfall observations and model control simulations from a Regional Climate Model RCM was performed through a robust and meaningful representation of the precipitation process. The output of the adopted RCM was analysed and re scaled exploiting the structure of a stochastic model of the point rainfall process. In particular, the stochastic model is able to adequately reproduce the rainfall intermittency at the synoptic scale, which is one of the crucial aspects for the Mediterranean environments. Possible alteration in the local rainfall regime was investigated by means of the historical daily time series from a dense rain gauge network, which were also used for the analysis of the RCM bias in terms of dry and wet periods and storm intensity. The result is a stochastic scheme for bias correction at the RCM cell scale, which produces a realistic representation of the daily rainfall intermittency and precipitation depths, though a residual bias in the storm intensity of longer storm events persists. 11 Published version Articolo in rivista Copernicus Publ. 1561 8633 Natural hazards and earth system sciences Print Natural hazards and earth system sciences Print Nat. hazards earth syst. sci. Print Natural hazards and earth system sciences. Print NHESS Print Print ivan.portoghese PORTOGHESE IVAN nicolasdominique.guyennon GUYENNON NICOLAS DOMINIQUE |