| Title | Applicability of a one-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake (Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland) |
| Abstract | One-dimensional coupled ecological-hydrodynamic numerical models of lakes require extensive calibration of their chemical and biological parameters. Application of these models to future projections relies on the time invariance of the calibrated model parameters and of the adopted schematisation. This is mere speculation for real ecosystems, so that it is relevant to explore the limits of coupled models over extended periods. To date, almost all applications in literature have been calibrated over a couple of years at most, with comparable validation periods, if present. Furthermore, past studies mostly concerned shallow to moderately deep small lakes, so that reproducing the hypolimnetic chemical evolution of very deep large lakes has generally been overlooked. Last, most works did not compare with observations or even model the succession of phytoplankton species, but only dealt with total Chlorophyll-alpha. Here, the GLM-AED2 (General Lake Model - Aquatic EcoDynamics) coupled model was calibrated and validated for an overall 16.75-year period for the 370-m deep and 213-km(2) wide Lake Maggiore (Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland), focusing on the reproduction of both deep-water chemistry and phytoplankton biomass and succession. Despite the modelling simplifications needed for this complex basin, the resulting performances are comparable to those in literature for shallower and smaller lakes over shorter periods. Still, extreme care must be put when interpreting the results of coupled ecological-hydrodynamic models for long-term projections, especially regarding the evolution of phytoplankton. |
| Source | Ecological modelling 392, pp. 38–51 |
| Keywords | 1D coupled ecological-hydrodynamic modelLong-term calibration/validationDeep-water chemistryPhytoplankton successionEcosystem evolutionClimate change effects |
| Journal | Ecological modelling |
| Editor | Elsevier, Shannon ;, Paesi Bassi |
| Year | 2019 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.005 |
| Authors | Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Morabito, Giuseppe; Marchetto, Aldo; Sibilla, Stefano; Dresti, Claudia |
| Text | 407791 2019 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.11.005 ISI Web of Science WOS 000460600900006 Scopus 2 s2.0 85057100456 1D coupled ecological hydrodynamic model Long term calibration/validation Deep water chemistry Phytoplankton succession Ecosystem evolution Climate change effects Applicability of a one dimensional coupled ecological hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland Fenocchi, Andrea; Rogora, Michela; Morabito, Giuseppe; Marchetto, Aldo; Sibilla, Stefano; Dresti, Claudia University of Pavia, Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, via Ferrata 3, 27100 Pavia Italy CNR Water Research Institute, Largo Tonolli 50, 28922 Verbania Pallanza Italy One dimensional coupled ecological hydrodynamic numerical models of lakes require extensive calibration of their chemical and biological parameters. Application of these models to future projections relies on the time invariance of the calibrated model parameters and of the adopted schematisation. This is mere speculation for real ecosystems, so that it is relevant to explore the limits of coupled models over extended periods. To date, almost all applications in literature have been calibrated over a couple of years at most, with comparable validation periods, if present. Furthermore, past studies mostly concerned shallow to moderately deep small lakes, so that reproducing the hypolimnetic chemical evolution of very deep large lakes has generally been overlooked. Last, most works did not compare with observations or even model the succession of phytoplankton species, but only dealt with total Chlorophyll alpha. Here, the GLM AED2 General Lake Model Aquatic EcoDynamics coupled model was calibrated and validated for an overall 16.75 year period for the 370 m deep and 213 km 2 wide Lake Maggiore Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland , focusing on the reproduction of both deep water chemistry and phytoplankton biomass and succession. Despite the modelling simplifications needed for this complex basin, the resulting performances are comparable to those in literature for shallower and smaller lakes over shorter periods. Still, extreme care must be put when interpreting the results of coupled ecological hydrodynamic models for long term projections, especially regarding the evolution of phytoplankton. 392 Published version https //www.scopus.com/record/display.uri eid=2 s2.0 85057100456 origin=resultslist Fenocchi et al. 2019 Applicability of a one dimensional coupled ecological hydrodynamic numerical model to future projections in a very deep large lake Lake Maggiore, Northern Italy/Southern Switzerland Fenocchi et al 2019.pdf Articolo in rivista Elsevier 0304 3800 Ecological modelling Ecological modelling Ecol. model. Ecological modelling. aldo.marchetto MARCHETTO ALDO michela.rogora ROGORA MICHELA claudia.dresti DRESTI CLAUDIA |
