Scheda di dettaglio – i prodotti della ricerca
| Dato | Valore |
|---|---|
| Title | Hydrology under climate change in a temporary river system: Potential impact on water balance and flow regime |
| Abstract | The potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future (2030-2059) and the recent conditions (1980-2009) were investigated. A hydrological model (SWAT) was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models (GCMs and RCMs). The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and sub-basin levels as deviation from the baseline (1980-2009), and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators (IHA). An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5-2.4°C and a reduction in precipitation (by 4-7%) was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water (7-18%) and total water yield (11-28%) was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I-D (i.e. Intermittent-Dry) and E (Ephemeral). Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated (4-4.4%). Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water-saving actions. |
| Source | River research and applications (Print) 2017, pp. 1–14 |
| Keywords | Climate changehydrological modellingstreamflow regimeimpact on blue watershydrological indicatorsimpact on hydrological regime. |
| Journal | River research and applications (Print) |
| Editor | John Wiley & Sons,, Chichester, West Sussex, UK, Regno Unito |
| Year | 2017 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1002/rra.3165 |
| Authors | A. M. De Girolamo, F. Bouraoui, A. Buffagni, G. Pappagallo, A. Lo Porto |
| Text | 370923 2017 10.1002/rra.3165 Scopus 2 s2.0 85021265623 ISI Web of Science WOS WOS 000409105100021 Climate change hydrological modelling streamflow regime impact on blue waters hydrological indicators impact on hydrological regime. Hydrology under climate change in a temporary river system Potential impact on water balance and flow regime A. M. De Girolamo, F. Bouraoui, A. Buffagni, G. Pappagallo, A. Lo Porto Water Research Institute National Research Council; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Dipartimento di Scienze Ecologiche e Biologiche Universita della Tuscia, Water Research Institute National Research Council; Water Research Institute National Research Council The potential impacts of future climate scenarios on water balance and flow regime are presented and discussed for a temporary river system in southern Italy. Different climate projections for the future 2030 2059 and the recent conditions 1980 2009 were investigated. A hydrological model SWAT was used to simulate water balance at the basin scale and streamflow in a number of river sections under various climate change scenarios, based on different combinations of global and regional models GCMs and RCMs . The impact on water balance components was quantified at the basin and sub basin levels as deviation from the baseline 1980 2009 , and the flow regime alteration under changing climate was estimated using a number of hydrological indicators IHA . An increase in mean temperature for all months between 0.5 2.4°C and a reduction in precipitation by 4 7% was predicted for the future. As a consequence, a decline of blue water 7 18% and total water yield 11 28% was estimated. Although the river type classification remains unvaried, the flow regime distinctly moves towards drier conditions and the divergence from the current status increases in future scenarios, especially for those reaches classified as I D i.e. Intermittent Dry and E Ephemeral . Hydrological indicators showed a decrease in both high flow and low flow magnitudes for various time durations, an extension of the dry season and an exacerbation of extreme low flow conditions. A reduction of snowfall in the mountainous part of the basin and an increase in potential evapotranspiration was also estimated 4 4.4% . Finally, the paper analyses the implications of the climate change for river ecosystems and for River Basin Management Planning. The defined quantitative estimates of water balance alteration could support the identification of priorities that should be addressed in upcoming years to set water saving actions. 2017 Preprint https //onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rra.3165 Hydrology under climate change in a temporary river system Potential impact on water balance and flow regime Hydrology under climate change in a temporary river system Potential impact on water balance and flow regime Hydrology under climate change .pdf Articolo in rivista John Wiley Sons, 1535 1459 River research and applications Print River research and applications Print River res. appl. Print River research and applications. Print River res. applic. Print antonio.loporto LO PORTO ANTONIO andreastefano.buffagni BUFFAGNI ANDREA STEFANO annamaria.degirolamo DE GIROLAMO ANNA MARIA giuseppe.pappagallo PAPPAGALLO GIUSEPPE |