Scheda di dettaglio – i prodotti della ricerca
| Dato | Valore |
|---|---|
| Title | Are generic early-warning signals reliable indicators of population collapse in rotifers? |
| Abstract | Timely identification of endangered populations is vital to save them from extirpation. Here we tested whether six commonly used early-warning metrics are useful predictors of impending extirpation in laboratory rotifer (Brachionus calyciflorus) populations. To this end, we cultured nine rotifer clones in a constant laboratory environment, in which the rotifer populations were known to grow well, and in a deteriorating environment, in which the populations eventually perished. We monitored population densities in both environments until the populations in the deteriorating environment had gone extinct. We then used the population-density time series to compute the early-warning metrics and the temporal trends in these metrics. We found true positives (i.e. correct signals) in only two metrics, the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation, but the standard deviation also generated a false positive. Moreover, the signal produced by the coefficient of variation appeared when the populations in the deteriorating environment were about to cross the critical threshold and began to decline. As such, it cannot be regarded as an early-warning signal. Together, these findings support the growing evidence that density-based generic early-warning metrics--against their intended use--might not be universally suited to identify populations that are about to collapse. |
| Source | Hydrobiologia (The Hague. Print) 796 (1), pp. 111–120 |
| Keywords | BrachionusExtirpationFalse positivePopulation densityTrue positive |
| Journal | Hydrobiologia (The Hague. Print) |
| Editor | Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, Paesi Bassi |
| Year | 2017 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10750-016-2948-7 |
| Authors | Sommer, Stefan; van Benthem, Koen J.; Fontaneto, Diego; Ozgul, Arpat |
| Text | 363154 2017 10.1007/s10750 016 2948 7 Scopus 2 s2.0 84982273227 Brachionus Extirpation False positive Population density True positive Are generic early warning signals reliable indicators of population collapse in rotifers Sommer, Stefan; van Benthem, Koen J.; Fontaneto, Diego; Ozgul, Arpat Universitat Zurich; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Timely identification of endangered populations is vital to save them from extirpation. Here we tested whether six commonly used early warning metrics are useful predictors of impending extirpation in laboratory rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus populations. To this end, we cultured nine rotifer clones in a constant laboratory environment, in which the rotifer populations were known to grow well, and in a deteriorating environment, in which the populations eventually perished. We monitored population densities in both environments until the populations in the deteriorating environment had gone extinct. We then used the population density time series to compute the early warning metrics and the temporal trends in these metrics. We found true positives i.e. correct signals in only two metrics, the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation, but the standard deviation also generated a false positive. Moreover, the signal produced by the coefficient of variation appeared when the populations in the deteriorating environment were about to cross the critical threshold and began to decline. As such, it cannot be regarded as an early warning signal. Together, these findings support the growing evidence that density based generic early warning metrics against their intended use might not be universally suited to identify populations that are about to collapse. 796 Published version http //link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10750 016 2948 7 sommer HYDRO 2017 2017_Hydrobiol_Sommer et al EV.pdf Articolo in rivista Kluwer Academic Publishers 0018 8158 Hydrobiologia The Hague. Print Hydrobiologia The Hague. Print Hydrobiologia The Hague. Print Hydrobiologia. The Hague. Print Hydrobiologia Dordrecht The Hague. Print Hydrobiologia Boston The Hague. Print Hydrobiologia London The Hague. Print diego.fontaneto FONTANETO DIEGO |