| Authors | Ivan Portoghese, Emanuela Bruno, Patrice Dumas, Nicolas Guyennon, Stéphane Hallegatte, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Hypatia Nassopoulos, Giovanna Pisacane, Maria Vittoria Struglia, Michele Vurro |
| Text | 344827 2013 10.1007/978 94 007 5781 3_9 Climate change impacts on hydrology o Coupling of climate and hydrological models o Downscaling of climate model output o Water resources evaluation under climate change o Climate change adaptation of water resources Impacts of Climate Change on Freshwater Bodies Quantitative Aspects Ivan Portoghese, Emanuela Bruno, Patrice Dumas, Nicolas Guyennon, Stephane Hallegatte, Jean Charles Hourcade, Hypatia Nassopoulos, Giovanna Pisacane, Maria Vittoria Struglia, Michele Vurro Water Research Institute , National Research Council of Italy, CNR IRSA , Bari , Italy; Centre International de Recherche sur l Agriculture et le Developpement, CIRAD , Paris , France; Water Research Institute , National Research Council of Italy, CNR IRSA , Rome , Italy; Centre International de Recherche sur l Environnement et le Developpement Ecole Nationale de la Meteorologie , Nogent sur Marne , France; Centre International de Recherche sur l Environnement et le Developpement , CIRED CNRS , Nogent sur Marne , France; Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, ENEA , Rome , Italy; In this chapter we present the results of the impact assessment on freshwater bodies in the Mediterranean region. Starting from the characterization of the general features of Mediterranean hydrology, main focus is given on large river basins discharging into the Mediterranean sea as well as to small and medium scale catchments representing almost half of the entire discharging basin. Groundwater representing a fundamental water resource for Mediterranean countries was also considered. Climate change impacts on the hydrological behavior of large river basins is investigated through the IRIS computational tool which was proved to be a versatile instrument for both climate studies and the assessment of model ability to simulate the hydrological cycle at catchment scale, taking advantage of the available observed discharge series to evaluate the reliability of future discharge projections. The results regarding some representative Mediterranean rivers using multiple climate models developed inside Circe have highlighted an open spread among twenty fi rst century projections. The problem of the effective information content of climate model simulations with respect to small scale impact studies is developed at the scale of medium and small catchments. Particularly at the space time scales needed to describe the terrestrial water cycle in Mediterranean environments this is recognized among the most dif fi cult problems facing both science and society. Therefore downscaling and bias correction requirements have been treated in this chapter through speci fi c methodologies which integrate dynamical downscaling with statistical downscaling always adopting ground based observation of climate variables as a powerful means to obtain more robust climate forcing for hydrological models. The assessment of climate change impacts on small and medium size catchments is developed through some representative case studies in which downscaling methodologies have been applied thanks to the availability of dense climate measurement networks. The impact assessment of water resources in the Apulia region southern Italy revealed a marked increase in the variability of hydrologic regimes as consequence of the increased rainfall variability predicted for the twenty fi rst century. Conversely only slight decreasing trends were detected in the annual water balance components. Similar results were found on a carbonate aquifer in Southern Italy in which a large Apennine spring have been selected as a signi fi cant hydrogeological systems with minimal anthropogenic pressures in the recharge areas. Finally a speci fi c session is dedicated to the role of arti fi cial dams in reducing the possible impacts of climate change. In particular, methodologies for the assessment of optimal dam dimensioning under climate change are presented as well as a reliability assessment based on water supply and demand imbalances. Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Navarra A. Tubiana L., eds. 978 94 007 5780 6 Published version chapter 9 Capitolo Contributo in volume Kluwer Academic Publishers 1574 0919 Advances in global change research Advances in global change research Advances in global change research. AGLO BRUNO EMANUELA ivan.portoghese PORTOGHESE IVAN nicolasdominique.guyennon GUYENNON NICOLAS DOMINIQUE michele.vurro VURRO MICHELE CIRCE Climate change and impact research the Mediterranean environment TA.P02.031.001 Impatto dei cambiamenti climatici sulla gestione delle risorse idriche |
