| Title | Assessing Recovery from Acidification of European Surface Waters in the Year 2010: Evaluation of Projections Made with the MAGIC Model in 1995 |
| Abstract | In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a "ground truth" evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3-] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition. |
| Source | Environmental science & technology 48 (22), pp. 13280–13288 |
| Keywords | MAGIC modelAcidificationEuropean lakes |
| Journal | Environmental science & technology |
| Editor | American Chemical Society,, Easton, Pa., Stati Uniti d'America |
| Year | 2014 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1021/es502533c |
| Authors | Helliwell, Rachel C.; Wright, Richard F.; Jackson-Blake, Leah A.; Ferrier, Robert C.; Aherne, Julian; Cosby, Bernard J.; Evans, Christopher D.; Forsius, Martin; Hruska, Jakub; Jenkins, Alan; Kram, Pavel; Kopacek, Jiri; Majer, Vladimir; Moldan, Filip; Posch, Maximilian; Potts, Jacqueline M.; Rogora, Michela; Schoepp, Wolfgang |
| Text | 314992 2014 10.1021/es502533c ISI Web of Science WOS 000345262900032 MAGIC model Acidification European lakes Assessing Recovery from Acidification of European Surface Waters in the Year 2010 Evaluation of Projections Made with the MAGIC Model in 1995 Helliwell, Rachel C.; Wright, Richard F.; Jackson Blake, Leah A.; Ferrier, Robert C.; Aherne, Julian; Cosby, Bernard J.; Evans, Christopher D.; Forsius, Martin; Hruska, Jakub; Jenkins, Alan; Kram, Pavel; Kopacek, Jiri; Majer, Vladimir; Moldan, Filip; Posch, Maximilian; Potts, Jacqueline M.; Rogora, Michela; Schoepp, Wolfgang James Hutton Institute; Norwegian Inst Water Res; Trent University; NERC Centre for Ecology Hydrology; Finnish Environm Inst SYKE; Czech Geological Survey; NERC Centre for Ecology Hydrology; Biol Ctr ASCR; IVL Swedish Environm Res Inst; Netherlands National Institute for Public Health the Environment; James Hutton Institute; Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche CNR ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis In 1999 we used the MAGIC Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments model to project acidification of acid sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution LRTAP . A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a ground truth evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water NO3 reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition. 48 Published version MAGIC model, Acidification, European lakes Articolo 2014_Environ_Sci_Technol_48_13280_13288.pdf Articolo in rivista American Chemical Society, 0013 936X Environmental science technology Environmental science technology Environ. sci. technol. Environmental science technology. ES T Environmental science and technology michela.rogora ROGORA MICHELA TA.P02.014.002 Impatto dei cambiamenti globali sugli ecosistemi acquatici |
