Scheda di dettaglio – i prodotti della ricerca

DatoValore
TitleImpacts of Climate Change on Water Quality
KeywordsLake temperatureDownscalingDeterministic modelsNutrient loadsRiver catchments
Year2013
TypeContributo in volume
DOI10.1007/978-94-007-5781-3_10
AuthorsDiego Copetti; Luca Carniato; Alessandro Crise; Nicolas Guyennon; Luca Palmeri; Giovanna Pisacane; Maria Vittoria Struglia; Gianni Tartari;
Text296839 2013 10.1007/978 94 007 5781 3_10 Lake temperature Downscaling Deterministic models Nutrient loads River catchments Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality Diego Copetti; Luca Carniato; Alessandro Crise; Nicolas Guyennon; Luca Palmeri; Giovanna Pisacane; Maria Vittoria Struglia; Gianni Tartari; Water Research Institute , National Research Council of Italy CNR IRSA , Unit of Brugherio , Brugherio , MB , Italy Dipartimento di processi chimici dell Ingegneria , Universita di Padova , Padova , Italy Istituto Nazionale di Oceanogra fi a e di Geo fi sica Sperimentale , OGS , Sgonico , TS , Italy Water Research Institute , National Research Council of Italy CNR IRSA , Rome , Italy Dipartimento di processi chimici dell Ingegneria , Universita di Padova , Padova , Italy Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development , ENEA , Rome , Italy Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development , ENEA , Rome , Italy Water Research Institute , National Research Council of Italy CNR IRSA , Unit of Brugherio , Brugherio , MB , Italy In this chapter we present the result of two model exercises aiming at simulating the impact of climate change onto two classes of surface aquifers lakes and rivers. Section 10.1 focuses on the impact of global warming on the thermal structure of two Italian South alpine lakes Lake Como and Pusiano. Long term hydrodynamic simulations 1953 2050 were performed using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model . DYRESM simulations were forced with downscaled regional climate scenarios undertaken within CIRCE. Our model simulations projected a yearly average temperature increase of 0.04°C year 1 for the period 1970 2000 and 0.03°C year 1 for the period 2001 2050 A1b IPCC scenario . These results are in line with those detected in long term research studies carried out world wide. This temperature increase is fi rst responsible for a general increase of the water column stability and for a reduction of the mass transfer between deep and surface waters with direct implications on the oxygen and nutrient cycles. The magnitude of the temperature increase is also suf fi cient to impact on the growth of phytoplankton populations and it is likely one of the concurrent causes promoting the massive cyanobacteria blooms, recently detected in the two Italian case studies and in different lake environments in Europe. Section 10.2 approaches the problem of establishing a methodology to estimate the average yearly nutrient phosphorus and nitrogen river loads under present climate conditions and under the forcing of climate change. The case study is the Po River the largest hydrological basin in Italy and the third tributary of the Mediterranean semienclosed basin. The methodology developed in this study is based on a hierarchy of different numerical models which allowed to feed the MONERIS model MOdeling Nutrient Emissions into River System with the necessary meteorological and hydrological forcing. MONERIS was previously calibrated 1990 1995 and validated 1996 2000 under past conditions and then run under current conditions to de fi ne a control experiment CE . Current nutrient loads have been estimated in 170,000 and 8,000 t year 1 respectively for nitrogen and phosphorus. Approximately 70% of the nitrogen load is from diffuse sources while 65% of the phosphorus load originates from point sources. Nutrient loads projections at 2100 under different IPCC scenarios allowed to estimate that both nitrogen and phosphorus loads are strictly dependent on the resident population which is responsible of a 61 and 41% increase respectively for nitrogen and phosphorus. Projected nutrient load variations were found to be negligible when holding the resident population constant. Finally the phosphorus load is markedly in fl uenced by the ef fi ciency of the waste water treatment plants WWTPs . Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Volume 1 Air, Sea and Precipitation and Water Antonio Navarra Laurence Tubiana 978 94 007 5780 6 http //www.springer.com/earth sciences and geography/earth system sciences/book/978 94 007 5780 6 detailsPage=chapter Capitolo Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality Copett_et_al_2013_Book_RACCM_Springer.pdf Contributo in volume Kluwer Academic Publishers 1574 0919 Advances in global change research Advances in global change research Advances in global change research. AGLO diego.copetti COPETTI DIEGO nicolasdominique.guyennon GUYENNON NICOLAS DOMINIQUE gianni.tartari TARTARI GIANNI TA.P02.031.001 Impatto dei cambiamenti climatici sulla gestione delle risorse idriche