| Title | Bayesian Belief Network to support conflict analysis for groundwater protection: the case of the Apulia region |
| Abstract | Water resource management is often characterized by conflicts, as a result of the heterogeneity of
interests associated with a shared resource. Many water conflicts arise on a global scale and, in particular,
an increasing level of conflicts can be observed in the Mediterranean basin, characterized by water
scarcity. In the present work, in order to assist the conflict analysis process, and thus outline a proper
groundwater management, stakeholders were involved in the process and suitable tools were used in
a Mediterranean area (the Apulia region, in Italy). In particular, this paper seeks to elicit and structure
farmers' mental models influencing their decision over the main water source for irrigation. The more
crucial groundwater is for farmers' objectives, the more controversial is the groundwater protection
strategy. Bayesian Belief Networks were developed to simulate farmers' behavior with regard to
groundwater management and to assess the impacts of protection strategy. These results have been used
to calculate the conflict degree in the study area, derived from the introduction of policies for the
reduction of groundwater exploitation for irrigation purposes. The less acceptable the policy is, the more
likely it is that conflict will develop between farmers and the Regional Authority. The results of conflict
analysis were also used to contribute to the debate concerning potential conflict mitigation measures.
The approach adopted in this work has been discussed with a number of experts in groundwater
management policies and irrigation management, and its main strengths and weaknesses have been
identified. Increasing awareness of the existence of potential conflicts and the need to deal with them
can be seen as an interesting initial shift in the Apulia region's water management regime, which is still
grounded in merely technical approaches. |
| Source | Journal of environmental management 115, pp. 136–146 |
| Keywords | Cognitive MapBayesian Belief NetworkConflict analysisGroundwater protection |
| Journal | Journal of environmental management |
| Editor | Academic Press., New York, Regno Unito |
| Year | 2013 |
| Type | Articolo in rivista |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.011 |
| Authors | R. Giordano1, D. D'Agostino2, C. Apollonio3, N. Lamaddalena2, M. Vurro1 |
| Text | 198600 2013 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.011 Cognitive Map Bayesian Belief Network Conflict analysis Groundwater protection Bayesian Belief Network to support conflict analysis for groundwater protection the case of the Apulia region R. Giordano1, D. D Agostino2, C. Apollonio3, N. Lamaddalena2, M. Vurro1 1National Research Council Water Research Institute, via De Blasio, 5 70123, Bari, Italy 2CIHEAM Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari, Via Ceglie, 9 70010 Valenzano BA , Italy 3Politecnico di Bari DICATECh, Via E. Orabona 4 70125 Bari, Italy Water resource management is often characterized by conflicts, as a result of the heterogeneity of interests associated with a shared resource. Many water conflicts arise on a global scale and, in particular, an increasing level of conflicts can be observed in the Mediterranean basin, characterized by water scarcity. In the present work, in order to assist the conflict analysis process, and thus outline a proper groundwater management, stakeholders were involved in the process and suitable tools were used in a Mediterranean area the Apulia region, in Italy . In particular, this paper seeks to elicit and structure farmers mental models influencing their decision over the main water source for irrigation. The more crucial groundwater is for farmers objectives, the more controversial is the groundwater protection strategy. Bayesian Belief Networks were developed to simulate farmers behavior with regard to groundwater management and to assess the impacts of protection strategy. These results have been used to calculate the conflict degree in the study area, derived from the introduction of policies for the reduction of groundwater exploitation for irrigation purposes. The less acceptable the policy is, the more likely it is that conflict will develop between farmers and the Regional Authority. The results of conflict analysis were also used to contribute to the debate concerning potential conflict mitigation measures. The approach adopted in this work has been discussed with a number of experts in groundwater management policies and irrigation management, and its main strengths and weaknesses have been identified. Increasing awareness of the existence of potential conflicts and the need to deal with them can be seen as an interesting initial shift in the Apulia region s water management regime, which is still grounded in merely technical approaches. 115 Bayesian Belief Network to support conflict analysis for groundwater protection the case of the Apulia region 1_s2_0_S0301479712005968_main.pdf Articolo in rivista Academic Press. 0301 4797 Journal of environmental management Journal of environmental management J. environ. manag. raffaele.giordano GIORDANO RAFFAELE michele.vurro VURRO MICHELE |
