Scheda di dettaglio – i prodotti della ricerca
| Dato | Valore |
|---|---|
| Title | An integration between Cognitive Map and Bayesian Belief Network for conflicts analysis in drought management |
| Abstract | In the real world, environmental decision-making takes place in a highly interconnected environment, in which neither the decisional ramifications of a management action, nor the complexity of its impact, can be neglected. This contribution focuses on drought management. Due to the high complexity of drought impacts and the ambiguity in drought perceptions, different and often conflicting drought management strategies could be implemented by different actors. This, in turn, could have a strong negative impact on the effectiveness of drought mitigation strategies. Therefore, a deep conflict analysis and the definition of effective negotiation strategies could be really useful. In this work, a method based on the integration between Cognitive Map and Bayesian Belief Network is proposed to support the elicitation and the analysis of stakeholders perceptions of drought, and the conflicts analysis. The method was applied to support drought management in Trasimeno Lake (Umbria Region). |
| Source | International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Modelling for Environment's Sake, Fifth Biennial Meeting, Ottawa, July 5-8 |
| Keywords | Drought managementConflicts analysisCognitive MapBayesian Belief NetworkFuzzy Logic |
| Year | 2010 |
| Type | Contributo in atti di convegno |
| Authors | R. Giordano; E. Preziosi; E. Romano |
| Text | 180914 2010 Drought management Conflicts analysis Cognitive Map Bayesian Belief Network Fuzzy Logic An integration between Cognitive Map and Bayesian Belief Network for conflicts analysis in drought management R. Giordano; E. Preziosi; E. Romano Water Research Institute I.R.S.A., Italian National Research Council C.N.R., Rome Bari, Italy In the real world, environmental decision making takes place in a highly interconnected environment, in which neither the decisional ramifications of a management action, nor the complexity of its impact, can be neglected. This contribution focuses on drought management. Due to the high complexity of drought impacts and the ambiguity in drought perceptions, different and often conflicting drought management strategies could be implemented by different actors. This, in turn, could have a strong negative impact on the effectiveness of drought mitigation strategies. Therefore, a deep conflict analysis and the definition of effective negotiation strategies could be really useful. In this work, a method based on the integration between Cognitive Map and Bayesian Belief Network is proposed to support the elicitation and the analysis of stakeholders perceptions of drought, and the conflicts analysis. The method was applied to support drought management in Trasimeno Lake Umbria Region . Modelling for Environment s Sake David A. Swayne; Wanhong Yang; A. A. Voinov; A. Rizzoli; T. Filatova 978 88 9035 741 1 http //www.iemss.org/society/index.php/iemss 2010 proceedings International Environmental Modelling and Software Society iEMSs 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Modelling for Environment s Sake, Fifth Biennial Meeting Ottawa July 5 8 Internazionale Contributo An integration between Cognitive Map and Bayesian Belief Network for conflicts analysis in drought management FullPaper_GiordanoREV.doc Contributo in atti di convegno raffaele.giordano GIORDANO RAFFAELE elisabetta.preziosi PREZIOSI ELISABETTA emanuele.romano ROMANO EMANUELE TA.P04.005.008 Integrazione di metodologie per il monitoraggio e la modellizzazione per la gestione delle risorse idriche |